Predictions for 15 November 2012

So with a shade under a week to go, who’ll be tasting the sweet nectar of success in Penarth and Cardiff South? One result is so obvious it was revealed back in July. But there’s a lot more at stake here than just who the MP will be, because the various parties’ progress and failures will set the tone for their campaigning over the coming years.

So let’s see what happened in the last Westminster contest in 2010:

  • Labour – 38.9%
  • Conservative – 28.3%
  • Lib Dem – 22.3%
  • Plaid – 4.2%
  • UKIP – 2.6%
  • Independent – 1.5%
  • Green – 1.2%
  • Christian – 0.6%
  • Communist – 0.4%

And in the 2011 Welsh Parliament elections:

  • Labour – 50.3%
  • Conservative – 27.5%
  • Plaid – 12.1%
  • Lib Dem – 10.1%

The result in this by-election will be much closer to the 2011 result than the 2010 result for the four big parties, for two main reasons:

  • Opinion polls (UK-wide) show consistently high support of Labour for at least 8 months, the Lib Dems remaining unpopular and the Conservatives finding it very difficult to improve their poll position
  • The context for the by-election is Welsh rather than UK, meaning that Plaid has greater visibility

So what does this all mean for the results? This is the Penarth a’r Byd prediction:

  • Labour – 48%
  • Conservative – 24%
  • Plaid – 12%
  • Lib Dem – 9%
  • UKIP – 4%
  • Green – 1%
  • Communist – <1%
  • Socialist Labour – <1%

So a sweeping victory for Labour, the Conservatives feeling a small amount of heat from UKIP and Plaid coming into third place at the expense of the Lib Dems. No real progress for the Greens, Communists or Socialist Labour.

12 Sylw

Filed under Democracy, Elections, Westminster

12 responses to “Predictions for 15 November 2012

  1. Yeah, I think that’s pretty much spot-on.

    I think it’ll be a case of whether Labour can break the 50% of the vote mark, and how many turnout considering the PCC elections.

    Plaid might be disappointed with 10-12% considering how much effort they’ve put into canvassing etc. the last few weeks (months even). Anything above 15% would be a “good result” for them I’d imagine.

  2. Martin

    I think if Plaid are setting their sights on 15% they’re destined for disappointment. Gettinf 10% would require a doubling of their previous vote. The highest vote Plaid has ever got in Cardiff for a Westminster election is 12% in Cardiff West in 2005, in a much more favourable constituency for PC than Cardiff South & Penarth. I don’t see Luke Nicholas matching that at a time when Labour is approaching almost record levels of support in Wales. Despite the slick online impression of activity, Plaid will struggle to break the 10% barrier, though they interestingly will be the only party other than Labour and UKIP to gain votes based on 2010. Luke’s main task has to be to be able to demonstrate that PC is gaining ground in south east Wales rather than losing ground. You can already predict the result from May’s council elections, with opinion polls virtually unchanged since then. I expect Labour to break 50% based on their landslide in May, Tories to hold a distant second with a slight drop compared to 2010, Plaid to possibly double their vote to 10%. Libs will probably fall into fourth which is what will push Labour above 50%.

  3. Interesting analysis. Of course, the opinion polls you’re looking at that have been “virtually unchanged” since May are presumably UK-wide polls. However, don’t rule out the context of this election being different to a standard Westminster election, and therefore Plaid finding it easier to have their case heard.
    As for Labour “approaching record levels of support in Wales” – I think you should check the history books. This page will give you a starter: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welsh_Labour

  4. Hysbysiad Cyfeirio: They Need to Start Listening | penartharbyd

  5. John Davies

    Two points I’d like to make regarding Plaid Cymru:

    Firstly, turnout is going to be terrible. You mention that the context for this election is Welsh rather than British so Plaid will have it easier to get their message across. I agree, but I’d point out that I’ve seen one piece about the by-election on Wales Today for the past two months (I don’t watch it every day though!). There is no coverage of this election so people will stay at home. Plaid Cymru tend to do better under these circumstances since apathy tends to affect Labour supporters more than Plaid’s. I think that might give Plaid an extra 1%-2%.

    Secondly, Plaid aren’t standing in the Police Commissioner election. Since both ballot papers will be filled in at the same time, swing voters, particularly in Grangetown, might be tempted to split their vote: Labour for PCC and Plaid for by-election. This might add a few extra votes for PC and take some away from Labour where they would naturally go.

    Very interesting to see what happens.

  6. Hysbysiad Cyfeirio: How did Penarth a’r Byd Do? | penartharbyd

  7. Hysbysiad Cyfeirio: Penarth and Cardiff South: Conservatives | penartharbyd

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  9. Hysbysiad Cyfeirio: Penarth and Cardiff South: Labour | penartharbyd

  10. Hysbysiad Cyfeirio: Penarth and Cardiff South: Lib Dems | penartharbyd

  11. Hysbysiad Cyfeirio: Penarth and Cardiff South: Plaid | penartharbyd

  12. Hysbysiad Cyfeirio: Penarth and Cardiff South: Other Parties | penartharbyd

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